8/25 The Law of Division in Modern Geopolitics: Navigating Spheres of Influence for Global Stability

Author: Todd M. Price, Ph.D.(c), © 2024, The 25 Immutable Laws of Geopolitical Strategy

Abstract

This paper explores the eighth principle in The 25 Immutable Laws of Geopolitical Strategy—The Law of Division, which asserts that global geopolitical landscapes are inherently divided into spheres of influence. The principle posits that understanding these divisions and effectively navigating them is crucial for maintaining international stability and preventing conflict. Through an analysis of current geopolitical case studies such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's Belt and Road Initiative, and the United States' influence in the Indo-Pacific region, this paper illustrates the practical implications of the law. Using peer-reviewed sources, the research aims to provide a theoretical and empirical grounding for understanding how modern geopolitical actors operate within these spheres of influence, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the context of emerging multipolarity.

Introduction

In modern geopolitics, The Law of Division remains a fundamental principle. As global power becomes increasingly multipolar, the idea that geopolitical landscapes are divided into spheres of influence is more relevant than ever. Historically, empires, coalitions, and superpowers have always exerted control over regions, dividing the world into areas of influence based on strategic, economic, or military considerations. From the Cold War to the present, managing these spheres has been critical in maintaining global stability.

This paper examines how The Law of Division operates in the contemporary geopolitical context, providing theoretical insights supported by case studies of ongoing global power shifts. It evaluates how actors like the United States, Russia, and China assert their influence and how other nations navigate this divided geopolitical landscape.

Theoretical Framework: The Law of Division

According to The Law of Division (Price & Oquindo, 2024), geopolitics is fundamentally about spheres of influence, where powerful nations dominate regions to project control, influence policy, and secure resources. This division, which is both strategic and natural, often leads to power struggles when different actors seek to expand their influence into contested or overlapping spheres. This principle is built upon realist international relations theories, where power and influence dictate global order (Mearsheimer, 2018).

In practice, this law can be observed throughout history, from the British Empire's control over trade routes during the colonial era to the United States' dominance in Western Europe through NATO during the Cold War. Modern geopolitics, however, has evolved to reflect a more complex and multipolar world where not just states but multinational corporations, non-state actors, and even international institutions compete for influence (Keohane & Nye, 2020).

Case Study 1: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Russia-Ukraine war provides a stark example of The Law of Division at play in contemporary geopolitics. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has been at the center of a geopolitical struggle between Russia and Western powers, particularly the European Union and NATO. Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine illustrate its determination to maintain influence over its near-abroad—a key part of Russia's geopolitical strategy (Tsygankov, 2016).

Russia views Ukraine as within its historical sphere of influence, a position reinforced by President Vladimir Putin's geopolitical doctrine. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine was a direct response to Ukraine's increasing ties with the West, which Russia perceives as a threat to its strategic interests (Götz, 2022). The ongoing conflict also highlights the West's competing sphere of influence, with NATO and the EU providing substantial military and financial support to Ukraine. This tug-of-war over Ukraine underscores the critical importance of understanding and navigating divisions in the modern geopolitical landscape.

Case Study 2: China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is another significant example of The Law of Division manifesting in contemporary geopolitics. Through the BRI, China aims to extend its influence across Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America by building infrastructure, investing in local economies, and fostering political ties. This initiative is not merely about economic investment but also about creating a new sphere of Chinese influence across much of the developing world (Hurley et al., 2018).

The BRI has led to the creation of new geopolitical divisions. Countries that participate in the initiative often find themselves becoming more reliant on China economically and politically, thus falling into its sphere of influence. For instance, countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka have received billions of dollars in Chinese investment, but these investments come with strategic obligations, leading to the concept of "debt-trap diplomacy" (Bräutigam, 2020). The BRI is reshaping the global geopolitical map, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, where the United States traditionally held sway.

Case Study 3: The United States in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as a critical battleground for spheres of influence, with the United States seeking to counterbalance China's growing dominance. The U.S. has long maintained its influence in the region through strategic alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines. However, China's aggressive territorial claims in the South China Sea and its expanding economic reach through the BRI challenge the U.S.'s traditional dominance in the region (Beeson, 2019).

The Biden administration’s "Indo-Pacific Strategy" (2022) seeks to reinforce the U.S.'s influence through increased diplomatic, economic, and military engagement, positioning itself as a counterweight to China's influence. The AUKUS alliance, formed between the U.S., UK, and Australia, is a clear example of how alliances are being formed to maintain spheres of influence in contested regions (White, 2021). This geopolitical division between U.S. allies and China's sphere of influence in the region exemplifies the modern application of The Law of Division.

Challenges and Opportunities in a Divided Geopolitical Landscape

The Law of Division presents both challenges and opportunities for modern nation-states. On the one hand, competing spheres of influence can lead to conflicts, as seen in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. These conflicts often arise when one power perceives its sphere of influence as threatened by another, leading to military, economic, or political confrontations (Mearsheimer, 2018). On the other hand, understanding these divisions allows nations to form strategic alliances, develop counter-balancing strategies, and assert their influence in ways that avoid direct confrontation.

Moreover, in an era of globalization and digital interconnectivity, non-state actors, multinational corporations, and international organizations have become critical players in these spheres of influence. Nations must now navigate not only state-to-state relations but also the influence of powerful transnational entities (Keohane & Nye, 2020).

Conclusion

The Law of Division, as outlined in The 25 Immutable Laws of Geopolitical Strategy, continues to shape global geopolitics in profound ways. From Russia's invasion of Ukraine to China's BRI and the U.S.'s Indo-Pacific strategy, understanding spheres of influence is critical to navigating the current multipolar world. Nations that can effectively manage their place within these divisions will be better equipped to maintain global stability and prevent conflict.

Copyright Statement: © 2024 Todd M. Price. All rights reserved. This content may not be reproduced or distributed without express permission from the author.

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