Political Instability: Causes, Consequences, and the Global Landscape

By Todd M Price MBA, Ph.D.(c).

Abstract

Political instability remains at the forefront of my research, particularly as it continues to shape both national trajectories and international security dynamics. Political instability refers to the uncertainty within a nation’s governance structure, where frequent changes in government, civil unrest, and weak institutions jeopardize stability. This phenomenon, as I have explored, is driven by a combination of economic inequality, social fragmentation, and the erosion of democratic governance.

Causes of Political Instability

Economic disparities often serve as the foundation for political instability. When significant portions of the population are excluded from economic participation, dissatisfaction grows, creating fertile ground for unrest. Haggard and Kaufman (2016) suggest that economic crises can undermine even well-established political regimes, weakening the legitimacy of governance and making instability inevitable.

Social fragmentation, particularly along ethnic and religious lines, further exacerbates these tensions. In my research, I have observed how marginalized groups, when politically or socially excluded, often escalate their grievances into broader conflicts. Cederman, Gleditsch, and Buhaug (2017) support this, noting that inequality often correlates with violent ethnic conflict, making it a critical factor in political instability.

Politically, authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes are particularly vulnerable to instability due to the suppression of opposition and the weakening of democratic norms. Governments that engage in corruption, disregard the rule of law, and restrict political participation create environments ripe for unrest. Levitsky and Ziblatt (2018) emphasize that the erosion of democratic institutions is a key driver of political instability, even in historically stable countries.

Israel and the Middle East

One of the most prominent and enduring examples of political instability in the global landscape is the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This conflict is not only a central issue for Israel and Palestine but also influences the broader Middle East. The territorial disputes, cycles of violence, and geopolitical tensions surrounding this conflict continue to exacerbate regional instability. Shlaim (2021) argues that the unresolved nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly regarding the occupation of Palestinian territories, fuels political instability both within Israel and across its neighboring states.

Internally, Israel has also faced political gridlock in recent years, with multiple elections and challenges in forming stable governments. The polarization between secular and religious factions, coupled with issues related to settlement policies and regional security concerns, creates a dynamic where political instability is a persistent issue. This instability has far-reaching consequences for both domestic governance and regional diplomacy, often intensifying tensions with Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

Consequences of Political Instability

The consequences of political instability are multifaceted and extend far beyond national borders. Economically, instability results in capital flight, loss of investor confidence, and the deterioration of public services. Fukuyama (2018) describes how this economic decline feeds into a cycle of instability, as weakened economies further delegitimize already fragile governments.

Moreover, political instability has significant implications for global security. Countries experiencing instability are more vulnerable to terrorism and extremism, as weakened governance provides opportunities for non-state actors to gain power. This is particularly evident in regions like the Middle East and North Africa, where civil conflicts have allowed groups such as ISIS to emerge. As instability grows, so do refugee flows, which further destabilize neighboring countries and regions. Salehyan and Gleditsch (2021) point out that refugee crises often have far-reaching security consequences, placing immense strain on host nations.

Diminishing Terrorism: T = b(PI)

A critical aspect of my research is understanding how political instability (PI) directly correlates with the rise of terrorism (T). I have developed an abstract mathematical function, T = b(PI), which represents how terrorism increases as a direct function of political instability. In regions where governance is weak, social grievances are high, and economic opportunities are limited, terrorism thrives. By addressing the underlying causes of political instability, we can mitigate the conditions that fuel terrorism.

This model illustrates that as political instability decreases (via strengthened governance, inclusive political systems, and respect for human rights), the conditions that allow terrorism to flourish also diminish. The practical implications of this model are crucial for both policymakers and international organizations that aim to curb the rise of terrorism by promoting political stability.

Summary Analysis of the Global Landscape by Region

1. North America: Political instability in North America, particularly the United States, is primarily driven by polarization. Issues such as immigration, economic inequality, and growing distrust in institutions continue to fuel tensions (Abramowitz, 2021).

2. Latin America and the Caribbean: Inequality, corruption, and weak institutions continue to destabilize countries in this region. Venezuela remains a clear example of how economic mismanagement can destabilize a country, while protests in Chile and Peru reflect deeper frustrations (Levitsky, 2020).

3. Europe: Western Europe remains largely stable, but Eastern Europe, particularly Ukraine and Belarus, faces significant instability. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a new geopolitical fault line threatening European security (Krastev & Holmes, 2020).

4. Middle East and North Africa (MENA): The MENA region continues to grapple with conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Libya. The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict also plays a critical role in perpetuating instability across the region (Shlaim, 2021).

5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Weak governance, ethnic conflicts, and economic challenges drive instability in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ethiopia and Sudan, in particular, are experiencing severe political crises (Branch & Mampilly, 2021).

6. South Asia: Political tensions between India and Pakistan continue to create instability in South Asia, with ethnic and religious divisions playing a significant role (Bose, 2021).

7. East Asia: East Asia is relatively stable, but concerns over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and China’s growing influence in the South China Sea continue to pose threats to regional security (Kim, 2020).

8. Southeast Asia: Southeast Asia faces challenges related to authoritarianism and ethnic tensions, with Myanmar in particular experiencing significant instability following the military coup (Thompson, 2022).

9. Oceania: Oceania remains stable but faces emerging threats from climate change. Rising sea levels and extreme weather events pose existential risks to island nations, which could lead to future instability (Connolly, 2021).

Conclusion

As I continue my research on political instability, it is clear that addressing its root causes—whether economic, social, or political—is essential to diminishing terrorism and ensuring global security. My abstract function T = b(PI) illustrates the direct link between political instability and terrorism, highlighting the importance of promoting inclusive governance, the rule of law, and respect for human rights as mechanisms to stabilize regions and reduce the conditions that breed extremism. In our interconnected world, political instability is not isolated to one region, but a global concern that requires collective action and sustained efforts.

References

Abramowitz, A. I. (2021). The great alignment: Race, party transformation, and the rise of Donald Trump. Yale University Press.

Branch, A., & Mampilly, Z. C. (2021). Africa uprising: Popular protest and political change. Zed Books Ltd.

Bose, S. (2021). Kashmir: Roots of conflict, paths to peace. Harvard University Press.

Cederman, L.-E., Gleditsch, K. S., & Buhaug, H. (2017). Inequality, grievances, and civil war. Cambridge University Press.

Connolly, J. (2021). The changing politics of climate change. Wiley.

Fukuyama, F. (2018). Identity: The demand for dignity and the politics of resentment. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

Haggard, S., & Kaufman, R. R. (2016). Dictators and democrats: Masses, elites, and regime change. Princeton University Press.

Heydemann, S. (2022). Beyond regime change: Managing instability in the Middle East. Brookings Institution Press.

Kim, S. H. (2020). North Korea and Northeast Asian regional security. Routledge.

Krastev, I., & Holmes, S. (2020). The light that failed: A reckoning. Penguin Press.

Levitsky, S. (2020). How democracies die. Crown Publishing Group.

Levitsky, S., & Ziblatt, D. (2018). How democracies die. Broadway Books.

Salehyan, I., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2021). Refugees and the spread of civil war. International Organization, 60(2), 335-366.

Shlaim, A. (2021). The Iron Wall: Israel and the Arab World. W.W. Norton & Company.

Thompson, M. R. (2022). The military coup in Myanmar: A return to the past?. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 43(1), 89-111.

© 2024 Global Counter-Terrorism Institute (GCTI). All rights reserved.

Glossary of Terms

Political Instability (PI)

The state of uncertainty or unpredictability in governance, often marked by frequent changes in leadership, civil unrest, and weakened institutions, which can result in societal and governmental dysfunction.

Economic Disparity

The unequal distribution of income and wealth across different segments of a population, which often contributes to social unrest and political instability.

Social Fragmentation

The division of society into different groups, often along ethnic, religious, or cultural lines, that weakens social cohesion and can lead to conflict and political instability.

Authoritarian Regime

A political system in which power is concentrated in the hands of a single leader or a small group of elites, often characterized by the suppression of political opposition and limited democratic freedoms.

Democratic Norms

The unwritten rules and conventions that sustain democratic governance, including respect for political opposition, judicial independence, free and fair elections, and the rule of law.

Rule of Law

The principle that all individuals and institutions, including the government, are accountable to the law, which is applied fairly and consistently without favoritism or prejudice.

Capital Flight

The large-scale exodus of financial assets and capital from a country due to economic or political instability, which can further weaken the economy and deepen political unrest.

Terrorism (T)

The unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, to achieve political aims. In this context, it is seen as a consequence of weakened governance and social discontent, as reflected in the mathematical function T = b(PI).

T = b(PI)

An abstract mathematical function developed in Mr. Price’s research that illustrates terrorism (T) as a function of political instability (PI), emphasizing how terrorism increases as instability rises and can be mitigated by reducing instability.

Refugee Flows

The mass movement of people fleeing political persecution, war, or instability in their home countries. Large refugee populations often strain resources in host countries and can lead to political instability in the receiving regions.

Geopolitical Tensions

The political and military rivalries and conflicts between nations, often over territorial disputes, influence, or resources. Geopolitical tensions can exacerbate regional instability and have global consequences.

Inclusive Governance

A form of governance that ensures representation and participation of all segments of society, including marginalized groups, in decision-making processes. It is considered a key factor in stabilizing political conditions.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

A region that includes countries in the Middle East and North Africa, which has been a focal point of political instability due to ongoing conflicts, authoritarian regimes, and socio-economic challenges.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

A long-standing territorial and political dispute between Israel and Palestine, marked by violence and failed peace negotiations, which contributes to political instability in the broader Middle East region.

Sectarian Division

Conflicts and divisions along religious or sectarian lines, often exacerbated by political marginalization, that contribute to instability in countries with significant religious or ethnic diversity.

Civil Unrest

Public disturbances caused by widespread dissatisfaction with governmental policies, often resulting in protests, riots, and clashes between citizens and authorities, contributing to political instability.

Extremism

The holding of radical political or religious views, often leading to actions that seek to disrupt or overthrow existing systems of governance. Extremism flourishes in politically unstable environments.

Global Security

The collective measures taken by nations and international organizations to ensure international peace and stability, often threatened by political instability and terrorism.