Terrorism Risk Assessment Report: Venezuela (2024)

Introduction

Venezuela is currently facing one of the most severe socio-political and economic crises in Latin America, contributing to a significant risk of terrorism. The Price-Oquindo Dynamic Threat Mitigation (DTM™) model, a comprehensive AI-driven system for assessing terrorism risk, was employed to evaluate the threat level in Venezuela. This model analyzes various socio-political and economic factors to predict terrorism risks, allowing policymakers to make data-driven decisions for counter-terrorism strategies. The overall risk score for Venezuela is 80.5, indicating a high likelihood of terrorist activities if mitigating actions are not taken.

This report applies the seven-factor framework of the Price-Oquindo model, integrating socio-economic status, political instability, ideological extremism, social disenfranchisement, lack of education, psychosocial factors, and external influence to evaluate the terrorism risk in Venezuela.

Risk Factor Analysis

1. Socio-Economic Status (SES)

Score: 60

Socio-economic disparity in Venezuela is one of the most pressing issues, with hyperinflation, widespread poverty, and high unemployment severely affecting the population. The desperation caused by such economic hardships creates fertile ground for extremist recruitment, as seen in other regions facing similar crises  . The high poverty rate makes individuals more vulnerable to radicalization and criminal activities as a means of survival .

Weight in Model: 0.25

Contribution to Score: 0.25 \times 60 = 15

2. Political Instability (PI)

Score: 75

Venezuela is experiencing severe political instability characterized by ongoing conflict between the government and opposition forces. The lack of governance, civil unrest, and government corruption has undermined the state’s ability to control violence and terrorism  . Political instability enables extremist groups to operate with impunity, leveraging the government’s weaknesses. Historical patterns show that such instability significantly increases terrorism risks  .

Weight in Model: 0.30

Contribution to Score: 0.30 \times 75 = 22.5

3. Ideological Extremism (IE)

Score: 40

While Venezuela does not have a high presence of traditional religious extremism, political ideologies on both the far-left and far-right have led to violent confrontations . Extremist political groups are exploiting the social unrest and poverty to further their causes. Although ideological extremism is moderate compared to other factors, its presence is still a risk that can escalate under the right conditions .

Weight in Model: 0.20

Contribution to Score: 0.20 \times 40 = 8

4. Social Disenfranchisement (SD)

Score: 65

High levels of disenfranchisement exist among Venezuela’s youth and ethnic minorities, who are largely excluded from economic and political participation. Such exclusion exacerbates feelings of alienation, which can lead to the formation of extremist groups  . The youth unemployment rate is particularly high, which makes them more susceptible to radical ideologies .

Weight in Model: 0.15

Contribution to Score: 0.15 \times 65 = 9.75

5. Lack of Education (LE)

Score: 50

The collapse of Venezuela’s educational system has led to a generation of undereducated youth. In conflict zones, such conditions create an environment where extremist propaganda can thrive  . Low education levels reduce critical thinking skills and make populations more vulnerable to manipulation by extremist groups .

Weight in Model: 0.10

Contribution to Score: 0.10 \times 50 = 5

6. Psychosocial Factors (PSF)

Score: 55

Years of conflict and socio-economic hardship have resulted in widespread mental health issues and social fragmentation. Psychosocial factors such as trauma and social isolation are key drivers of terrorism, as individuals seek to cope with crises through radicalization  . Community resilience is low, and access to mental health support is limited, further exacerbating these issues.

Weight in Model: 0.15

Contribution to Score: 0.15 \times 55 = 8.25

7. External Influence (EI)

Score: 60

Venezuela is significantly affected by external actors, including foreign governments and non-state actors that use the political and economic instability to their advantage  . Foreign influences, both supportive and adversarial, contribute to the financing and propagation of extremist ideologies. This factor is crucial as external funding can sustain terrorist activities in regions where local resources are scarce .

Weight in Model: 0.20

Contribution to Score: 0.20 \times 60 = 12

Final Risk Score Calculation

The total terrorism risk score is calculated by summing the contributions of each factor:

\text{T} = (0.25 \times 60) + (0.30 \times 75) + (0.20 \times 40) + (0.15 \times 65) + (0.10 \times 50) + (0.15 \times 55) + (0.20 \times 60)

\text{T} = 15 + 22.5 + 8 + 9.75 + 5 + 8.25 + 12 = 80.5

The final terrorism risk score for Venezuela is 80.5, indicating a high level of risk.

Conclusion

Venezuela’s terrorism risk score of 80.5 reflects a significant threat driven by socio-economic instability, political chaos, and external influences. Immediate interventions targeting economic disparity, political reform, education, and mental health support are essential to mitigate these risks. Moreover, addressing external influences and enhancing governance will be critical in preventing the rise of extremist movements. This comprehensive evaluation offers a roadmap for policymakers to prioritize resources and implement strategies that can reduce the likelihood of terrorism in the region   .

References

1. Price, T. & Oquindo, A. (2024). AI Predictive Modeling System for Terrorism Risk Assessment. United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) .

2. Global Counter-Terrorism Institute (GCTI). Mathematical Case Studies .

3. Global Counter-Terrorism Institute (GCTI). Counter-Terrorism Policy Call 2024 .

4. RAND Corporation. (2024). Counter-Terrorism Databases and Resources. Retrieved from RAND Topics: Terrorism.

Copyright and Trademark Statements

Copyright Statement:

© 2024 Price-Oquindo DTM™. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the authors, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, contact the publisher at the address below:

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Phone: +1 (541) 350-0997

Trademark Statement:

Price-Oquindo DTM™ is a trademark of Todd M. Price and Amber Oquindo. Any unauthorized use of the trademark is strictly prohibited. The Price-Oquindo Model and its proprietary algorithms are protected under applicable intellectual property laws, including patents pending with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). All other trademarks referenced in this document are the property of their respective owners.

Author Bios

Todd M. Price, MBA, Ph.D.(c)

Co-Founder, Global Counter-Terrorism Institute

Chair, Masters in International Security Studies, Paris Graduate School-Innovative Knowledge Institute

Todd M. Price is a retired U.S. Army veteran and a global expert in counter-terrorism, with over 20 years of military service, including key leadership roles in counter-terrorism operations both domestically and internationally. As the co-founder of the Global Counter-Terrorism Institute (GCTI), Todd has spearheaded several initiatives aimed at enhancing global security through education and innovative threat mitigation strategies.

In his academic role as Chair of the Masters in International Security Studies program at the Paris Graduate School, Todd trains the next generation of counter-terrorism professionals. His research focuses on the application of AI and machine learning in terrorism risk assessment, with his contributions being recognized worldwide. He is the recipient of numerous awards, including the Meritorious Service Award and the Humanitarian Service Award .

Amber R. Oquindo, MSHS, Ph.D.(c)

Co-Founder, Global Counter-Terrorism Institute

Director of Curriculum Development, Global Counter-Terrorism Institute

Amber Oquindo is a distinguished scholar in Homeland Security Management with a Master of Science degree in Homeland Security from Pennsylvania State University. As a co-founder of the Global Counter-Terrorism Institute, Amber leads research and curriculum development efforts that focus on understanding and mitigating the root causes of terrorism, including recruitment, radicalization, and propaganda dissemination.

Her work emphasizes the importance of education in counter-terrorism, and she collaborates with global non-profit organizations to provide interventions for marginalized communities, particularly in conflict regions. Amber’s expertise extends to FEMA-certified national security operations, where she actively contributes to advancing security frameworks to address emerging global threats .